Ukrainian labor migrants are our main foreign investor. Such an opinion was voiced by Vladislav Kravets, Chairman of the Board of the RwS Bank, at the First Ukrainian Currency Forum. Here is an excerpt from his speech.

Our country (blue schedule) received last year's $ 12 billion from abroad. It is above us that for Vietnam alone, with $ 14 billion. But in Vietnam, the population is 100 million, while in Ukraine, for according to various estimates, about 35 million people. The trend is totally disappointing.

On this graph, blows in Ukraine for 2008-09 and 2013-14, when incomes from abroad fell: people began to accumulate money. You can also see the tendency of the 16th year: with the introduction of a visa-free regime, the volume of remittances has sharply increased.

The graph on the right shows the Ukrainian income compared with the world in 2017. If we go from our $ 12 billion and $ 600 billion worldwide, then Ukraine's share is 2% of global revenues. Our country occupies the first place in Europe according to this indicator. Ukrainian "earners" form the currency balance of the country, providing, according to various estimates, from $ 9 to $ 20 billion in revenues. In fact, none of the foreign institutional investors in our country today gives such an influx of currency as our citizens working abroad.
"Bermuda Triangle" of money transfers to Ukraine

The main volume of foreign exchange earnings goes to the country unofficially. The banking system is extruded with fixtures and "sarafan radio" - neighbors, drivers, buses, trains, etc.

Below, the chart shows the main donor countries that make currency injections into Ukraine - Poland, Russia, the USA and the Czech Republic.

According to NBU statistics for 2017, these receipts amount to about $ 9.3 billion. According to PrivatBank, only Poland of $ 9 billion last year, according to the World Bank - $ 12 billion, and according to the Asian Development Bank - $ 20 billion. There are no precise methods for calculating: it is difficult to calculate how much is spent in pockets or trains.

All four leading countries in terms of remittances give the minimum percentage of revenues through official channels. For example, Poland gives only 5%, Russia - 30%, Czech Republic - 8%. This is the so-called "Bermuda Triangle" of revenues. At the same time, the share of official transfers from countries with a high percentage of non-cash payments is 80-100%.

Poland overwhelms not only the labor force from Ukraine but also the youth

The data from Unesco in 2016 show that the countries where Ukrainian students go to study 80% overlap with those where our citizens go to work - Poland, Russia, Germany and Italy. Ukrainians replace the Poles who left for Germany, England, France and are unlikely to return. And now, in Poland, everything is done to keep our citizens. As a result, they get the replacement of skilled labor force, and we - no.

Our "salaried workers" in Poland have preferential tariffs for sending money to Ukraine, there is a convenient infrastructure, social support. Ukrainian labor migrants help to adapt to local conditions, and they do not want to go back, but rather take families with them. If earlier Poland was traveling from four neighboring regions, now geography has expanded by the regions of Central and Eastern Ukraine - this is already a systemic problem for the country. 99% of Ukrainians who work in Poland are unskilled workers who worked in the season, returned to Ukraine and are waiting for the next challenge. That is, they do not work in Ukraine.
Money transfer channels from labor migrants

The bulk of official payments to Ukraine from Poland comes through the Polish Kredobank and Idea Bank. But this is a channel for the most socially protected group: those Ukrainians who have legal status in Poland, stable work, and a normal salary. They do not make sense to take risks, it's easier to pay 40 euros in equivalent and sleep calmly, realizing that after half an hour the money will be credited. The average transfer amount from Poland is 1.3 thousand euros. This is due both to material capabilities and to the requirement of IML: without special control, you can transfer from 1000 to 5000 euros.

Among other channels for money transfer are non-bank financial institutions. In Ukraine there are now registered 61 fi neteh-companies. The choice is enormous. In this case, techniques are used: the transfer is free, but then converted from a zloty to a euro or a dollar at a disadvantage rate. Transfers can be done using social networks, etc.

The reason why "wage earners" prefer informal channels of remittance is obvious: when a person comes to a bank, he is told - "identify," and he can not confirm the origin of money. He performed work from the owner and he was paid without taxes, without registration, without anything. Therefore, he is afraid to transfer these money here, leaving traces on official channels. In Poland, he did not pay taxes and does not want to pay, so everything goes gray.

In the Czech Republic, more stringent labor requirements require clear registration.

There are no seasonal, half-season people from neighboring areas who have worked and gone. You need to go through an official employment procedure, get all social responsibilities and benefits, and then you can use all the benefits.

Even the so-called Hvala system already works for us. This is a well-known Islamic system where you can give money at a "point" in a bazaar in Yemen, and get them in the UAE or any other country in the world. Tariff for transfer - 1%. The fact that this system came to us shows one thing: the volume of unofficial transfers or "gray" channels swept Ukraine and it is necessary to somehow regulate the situation, because now it is out of control.

Money from labor migrants has to be legalized, this money must be legalized from the tax point of view. If a person can not explain where he has money, he can spend them through certain channels, pay 3-5%, etc. There are two banks that are already working, if necessary - it is necessary to include the antimonopoly committee to resolve the issue, to align the tariffs. Although this will not solve the main problem - the fact that Ukrainians leave the country, leaving the "gaps" in the labor market.

10 October 2018

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