The introduction of martial law in 10 regions of the country will lead to additional pressure on the hryvnia exchange rate, however, a deep devaluation of the national currency will not occur, say bankers polled by Interfax-Ukraine.
"In the absence of additional economic and political shocks, a timely and balanced exchange rate correctional policy of the National Bank, the course will soon be fixed in the area of 28 UAH / $ 1," said Oleg Kurinnoy, director of the Treasury of Credit Dnepr bank.
At the same time, he added that the introduction of martial law could cause a short-term increase in situational imbalances of supply and demand of currency. But if the regulator controls the situation on the interbank market by participating in trading with various instruments and leveling out peak imbalances, the rush sentiment of the cash market reinforces the speculative component and creates the effect of a self-unwinding spiral.
At the same time, O.Kurinna noted that the most significant factors affecting the exchange rate dynamics are price trends for key Ukrainian exports (grain and metal products) and imports (energy), inflation and devaluation moods of business and the population, as well as the course of cooperation. with the IMF, which has experience of financial assistance to countries in which the military conflicts took place.
Chairman of the Board of RwS Bank Vladislav Kravets believes that if during the week the NBU does not enter the interbank market with support for the hryvnia, the national currency may become cheaper by the end of the week to UAH 29 / $ 1.
"If during the week the NBU does not reach the interbank market, the national currency may fall to UAH 29 / $ 1 by the end of the week. But there will be no deep devaluation - the average annual rate for the year will not exceed UAH 29.3 / $ 1 (29.3 UAH / $ 1 - an indicator of the average annual hryvnia exchange rate laid down in the state budget-2018- IF). After the lifting of martial law, the hryvnia will begin to strengthen, "said the banker.
Chairman of the Board of Aybox Bank Galina Heilo noted that the NBU has enough tools to support the hryvnia exchange rate and will not allow a sharp devaluation.
"In the near future, the volatility of the hryvnia exchange rate will significantly increase due to the introduction of martial law, but the NBU has a wide range of tools and a sufficient amount of reserves to keep the hryvnia exchange rate from a sharp devaluation. It is unlikely that the hryvnia exchange rate will reach 30 UAH / $ 1 ", - said G. Heilo.
27 November 2018